The intricate web of international relations in the 21st century is influenced by a multitude of complex factors. In the context of the Middle East, the interplay between regional powers, global politics, and historical tensions shapes the geopolitical landscape. Two significant actors in this dynamic region are Turkey and Iran. Their enduring relationship, often marked by ambivalence and competition, holds paramount importance not only for the Middle East but also on the global stage. This region faces many contemporary issues, including Arab-Israeli relations, the Arab Spring, the Syrian Civil War, and the Iranian Nuclear Program. However, this article focuses on the intricate dynamics of Turkish-Iranian relations in the 21st century, with a particular emphasis on the Kurdish question and their relationship with Iraq.
Understanding Turkish-Iranian Relations
Turkey and Iran's long-standing relationship in the Middle East is marked by geopolitical rivalry. With their significant influence in the region, both countries share a common border and a history of fluctuating relations since Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution. Tensions persisted, primarily due to Turkey's NATO membership and its special relationship with the United States, which Iran considered one of its greatest adversaries. Turkey's relations with Israel, including close military cooperation, further complicated matters. However, the dynamics began to shift with the ascent of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) to power in 2002. This new Turkish leadership sought a foreign policy focused on "zero problems with neighbors" and economic interdependence, creating a more pragmatic and cooperative environment between the two nations. The Turkish-Iranian relationship that once teetered on the brink of conflict began to transform.
These evolving foreign policy approaches, coupled with changing national contexts in both countries, provided fertile ground for improved relations. Erdogan's government's pursuit of pragmatism, economic interdependence, and peaceful coexistence with Iran signified a significant shift. The transformation in Turkish politics created a positive atmosphere for cooperation, especially in the economic realm. While the historic tension between the two nations was a product of NATO membership and relationships with Iran's adversaries, the Erdogan government's shift offered hope for a more constructive dialogue. Notably, the construction of a 2577-kilometer gas pipeline from Tabriz to Ankara in 2001 reflected the commitment to fostering bilateral economic ties, driven by regional obligations and interests.
Despite the ongoing rivalry and fluctuating relations, the secular leadership of Turkey and Iran historically shared modernization goals and Western-style modernization approaches. Their relationship remained amicable until the Iranian Revolution in 1979. However, the revolution in Iran, with its apprehension toward pro-Western, secular leadership in Turkey and the settling of Iranian refugees in Turkey, escalated tensions. Iran viewed Turkey's Western alignment, NATO membership, and protection of Iranian opponents to the regime with suspicion, complicating their relationship. This era marked the beginning of uncertainty and changes in their relations.
Skepticism and Mutual Mistrust
Some scholars argue that the Middle East regional system has maintained multipolarity since the end of World War II, with five regional powers: Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. This multipolarity has compelled each actor to balance against the other to prevent dominance. This balancing act led to closer relations between Iran and Turkey, with mutual interests in preventing Kurdish movements in their territories. However, tensions still simmered due to Iran's concerns about Turkey's neo-Ottoman ambitions and Turkey's aspirations to become a regional leader. While they share similarities in terms of geographical location, historical heritage, and rich culture, they also maintain differences in fundamental politics, security priorities, and trade cooperation. Despite these similarities, their relationship fluctuated within a defined range but reached neither a state of deep crisis or close strategic cooperation.
Notably, there is increased collaboration between Iran and Turkey in the energy sector. Turkey's energy needs and Iran's vast oil and natural gas resources have played a crucial role in their cooperation. Iran stands as the second-largest supplier of natural gas to Turkey, second only to Russia, and is also a significant source of oil for the country. The establishment of a 2577-kilometer gas pipeline from Tabriz to Ankara in 2001 underscores the deepening economic ties. This intensified energy cooperation, while alarming to some in Washington, was deemed necessary by both Ankara and Tehran to address common challenges in their geopolitical sphere.
The Kurdish Question: A Common Concern and Competition
A central point of understanding in Turkey-Iran relations revolves around the politics of the Kurdish regional minority. Both countries have formed an unlikely alliance to prevent Kurdish independence. Their cooperation focuses on opposing referendums in the Kurdish Regional Government territory, fueled by the fear that Kurdish aspirations for independence could spill over into their own territories. This partnership has led both Turkey and Iran to establish ties with different Kurdish factions in northern Iraq, a strategy designed to curb Kurdish aspirations and hinder their drive toward independence. These developments have created a complex situation for the Kurds, with divisions among regional powers restraining their collective goals. Additionally, Turkey has expressed interest in intelligence and tactical cooperation with Iran against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its Iranian branch, the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK). However, this cooperation has not fully materialized, as Iran does not share the same level of urgency as Turkey regarding the PKK's threat.
Turkey and Iran, despite historical animosities, are working together to address the Kurdish question. Their joint interest lies in countering separatist movements, particularly those initiated by the PKK and its Iranian affiliate, PJAK. This partnership also extends to ties with Kurdish factions within northern Iraq. Turkey has strengthened its relations with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) led by Masoud Barzani, while Iran has aligned with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). This tactical cooperation signifies a shared concern for suppressing Kurdish independence and extending their sphere of influence in the region.
Competition Over Iraq: Struggles for Influence
While the Turkish-Iranian relationship is marked by cooperation and competition, certain elements challenge the sustainability of their partnership. Turkey's pursuit of good relations with Iraq's Kurdish Regional Government to secure its influence, particularly in the energy sector, has strained relations with Iran. As Turkey leverages its economic interests in northern Iraq, Iran becomes increasingly concerned about the potential impact on its own Kurdish population and, by extension, its national security. Iran is cautious about allowing Turkey to exert too much influence in the region, as this could lead to a change in the regional power balance and potentially enable Turkey to threaten Iran's interests.
Furthermore, the international context has also influenced the dynamics of Turkey-Iran relations. The complexities of the Syrian Civil War, the Arab Spring, and the rise of the Islamic State (IS) created an evolving set of challenges for both nations. While Turkey and Iran have navigated these challenges in various ways, their differing approaches and priorities in Syria have at times strained their relationship. Turkey supported the Syrian opposition and sought the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad, while Iran remained a staunch ally of the Assad regime. This divergence in their positions created a source of friction.
In the 21st century, Turkish-Iranian relations have been defined by a complex interplay of cooperation and competition. The historical tensions between the two nations, rooted in their distinct geopolitical orientations and historical legacies, have been mitigated by their pragmatic policies and common concerns, particularly regarding the Kurdish question and Iraq. Understanding this relationship is essential for comprehending the dynamics of the modern Middle East. Researchers and policymakers must closely monitor these developments, as regional geopolitics continue to evolve, and the interests of Turkey and Iran intersect and diverge in the broader context of global and regional dynamics. The Middle East's future will continue to be shaped by the evolving partnership between these two regional giants.
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